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OPINION POLL: Five Kakamega MPs to lose their seats if elections were to be held today

MPs Khamala, Mugabe and Shinali had the highest approval rating among Kakamega MPs by the voters.

By County Splash Team

In the run up to the 2022 General Elections, exactly two years ago, Kakamega’s MPs promised to bring transformative change to their respective constituencies. They campaigned with fervor, pledging to address local issues such as infrastructure development, education, and legislation.

But as the days turned into months, and months into years, the question on everyone’s mind was whether their promises had translated into tangible progress.

In an Opinion Poll commissioned by the County Splash Media in the month of August, this year, the approval ratings for these MPs was a mixed bag. The sample size for the poll was 1500 voters per constituency.

For most of them, their performance was a blend of successes and shortcomings. Roads were repaired, students received bursaries and schools infrastructure received a facelift .Yet, some constituents still feel that the MPs had fallen short of their lofty promises, and a palpable sense of dissatisfaction was brewing.

At least five out of the current 12 Kakamega County MPs are facing the significant risk of being voted out if elections were held today. Three of them are serving their third term and the other two serving second and first term respectively.

Poll Results  

Lurambi MP Titus Khamala (ODM) had the highest approval of 65.71 per cent, followed closely by Likuyani MP Innocent Mugabe (ODM) with 65.13 per cent and Ikolomani MP had the third highest approval rating with 64.89 per cent.

Khwisero MP Christopher Aseka Miradi (ODM) came at the fourth position in the ranking with 62.07 per cent, Butere MP Tindi Mwale (ODM) had 62.11 per cent at the fifth position, Lugari MP Nabii Nabwera (ODM) was at the sixth position with a rating of 62.07 per cent and Mumias East MP Peter Salasya (DAP-K) had an approval rating of 60.87 per cent to be ranked at the seventh position.

From the poll, voters exuded confidence that Mr Khamala (Lurambi MP), Mr Aseka Miradi (Khwisero MP) and Mr Shinali (Ikolomani MP) can make good governor candidates in 2027, going by their development track record.

Shinyalu MP Fred Ikana (ANC) was at the eighth position with an approval rating of 55.69 per cent, Johnson Naicca, the Mumias West MP had an approval rating of 54.71 per cent at the ninth position and Malava MP Malulu Indendi (ANC) came at the tenth position with an approval rating of 52.41 per cent.

Navakholo MP Emmanuel Wangwe had an approval rate of 49.61 per cent at the 11th position and Matungu MP Peter Nabulindo (ODM) had an approval rating of 44.93 per cent at the 12th position.

Analysis for the MPs with the highest approval rating

The high rating of MPs Khamala (Lurambi), Mugabe (Likuyani), Aseka (Khwisero), and Mwale (Butere) as top-performing lawmakers was based on their work on the ground with key achievements in infrastructure development, education scholarships and bursaries targeting poor and vulnerable students and last mile electricity connection.

All the five MPs have prioritized in improving the infrastructure of schools within their constituencies, improved on the security situation by construction of police stations and those of chiefs and their assistants, enhanced access to education through scholarships and bursaries, which in turn the sampled population said that it has helped in alleviating poverty through education.

Through opening up of dilapidated roads, these MPs have directly impacted on the socio- economic development of their constituents by facilitating trade, mobility and access to essential services.

However, the constituents were unhappy with those among them like Mr Aseka and Mr Shinali who voted Yes for the Finance Bill 2024 that was dropped.

Analysis for the candidates with least approval rating

Malulu Injendi

Malulu was first elected as an MP in 2013 on UDF party and switched to Jubilee party in 2017 and then to ANC in 2022 at his third stab at the much coveted seat.

He weathered stiff competition from Secretary General of Kenya National Union of Nurses Seth Panyako to retain the seat after garnering 22,891 votes. Panyako got 20,133 votes and the difference was just 2,758 votes.

His support among the electorate has waned by a big margin and majority of the sampled population feel that, it’s time to try a new broom. There’s the general feeling that he does not live to fulfill his promises and therefore, they don’t feel like giving him a fourth term. They complained of poor road network, poor infrastructure in schools and poor leadership. They accused him of not utilizing his relationship with President William Ruto to develop the constituency.

However, Malulu still enjoys the power of incumbency and if the constituency will be split in two by 2027, he will still have an upper hand, given that he will have a small electoral area to manage.  His likely competitors are Mr Panyako, West Kabras ward and Minorty Leader at the County Assembly of Kakamega, David Ndakwa and Edgar Busieka.

Emmanuel Wangwe

Mr Wangwe who is serving his third term was first elected to parliament in 2013 after the constituency was hived off from Lurambi. In the 2022 elections, withstood stiff competition from three other candidates and retained the seat after garnering 23,753 votes.

However, his popularity on the ground has been fading over the years with voters saying that he has very little to show when it comes to his development track record. The situation was worsened when the latter voted (YES) to the contentious Finance 2024 that was rejected by Kenyans and later dropped in totality. The voters are yet to forgive him for supporting the punitive finance bill. Some feel

Poor road network in the constituency has further exacerbated the situation with voters now developing a keen interest on Shinoyi/Shikomari/Shikomari MCA Boniface Akosi and Dr Boniface Okoth, the current County Executive Committee Member (Cecm) in charge of Education. Others feel that it’s time to try new blood since they are now ‘fatigued’ by Mr Wangwe who still enjoys the power of incumbency.

Mr Akosi, a teacher by profession commands a huge support among the Gen-Z’s with the Batsotso’s also supporting his bid. For Dr Okoth, also a teacher and a long serving principal at Chebuyusi High School, has his name well spread in the constituency and is likely to split the Banyala vote between him and Wangwe if he decides to be on the ballot.

 Peter Nabulindo – MP Matungu

Mr Nabulindo has no support among the Gen-Z’s who they say he doesn’t have their interests at heart.

Mr Nabulindo voted for the controversial Bill during its second reading and since then, voters have never forgiven him despite asking for an apology from them. The bill was later dropped in totality following widespread protests in the country led by the Gen-Z’s.

Majority of the sampled voters claimed that he has not fulfilled many of the promises he made to them during the electioneering period and that, his track record in terms of development is not being felt on the ground.

When asked who they consider as an alternative if elections were to be held today, majority of the electorate threw their weight behind Khalaba ward MCA Boniface Osanga and former parliamentary aspirant Bernard Wakoli.

Nabulindo still commands a huge following among the older people above 45 years, but going by the current voting demographics, they are the minority.

He was first elected to parliament in a by election in March 2021 and retained the seat after garnering 22,528 votes. Nabulindo staved off competition from eight candidates to bag the seat.

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