By Collins Matubwi
There are heightened political activities in Western region with only 13 months remaining to the next polls.
With President Uhuru Kenyatta on his final lap of his presidency, political bigwigs in the country who are keen at succeeding him are all competing to have the Mulembe nation under their control ahead of the 2022 polls.
They are Deputy President William Ruto,ODM leader Raila Odinga, Amani National Congress (ANC) leader Musalia Mudavadi, Moses Wetang’ula (Ford Kenya), Wiper’s Kalonzo Musyoka and Gideon Moi (Kanu).
But is this making the region a battleground in Uhuru succession race? Is there a likelihood of the region, uniting under a single candidate ahead of 2022?
First, Western region is the second in population to Central Kenya according to the 2019 census.
According to analysts, this numerical strength is making region a battleground for the next polls and subsequently play a pivotal role in determining who will be the next President.
“After Mudavadi and Wetang’ula agreed to work together like in the Kabuchai and Matungu mini polls and won the seats, they have now become a force to reckon nationally. Mudavadi’s declaration to vie for presidency is also giving Ruto and Raila a big headache since its denying them votes,” said Lugari MP and ANC Deputy Party Leader Ayub Savula.
Politicians seeking national seats have always used Mulembe nation as a swing vote area by dividing local leaders every electioneering period but the region seems to have reawakened and now uniting under Mudavadi and Wetang’ula who are now working like conjoined twins.
This unity is now giving the likes of Raila and DP Ruto sleepless nights since they were intending to use it again in 2022 in order to ascend to presidency.
“After Mudavadi and Wetang’ula agreed to work together like in the Kabuchai and Matungu mini polls and won the seats, they have now become a force to reckon nationally. Mudavadi’s declaration to vie for presidency is also giving Ruto and Raila a big headache since its denying them votes,” said Lugari MP and ANC Deputy Party Leader Ayub Savula.
Savula avers that Western region will play a pivotal role in determining who will be the next President after Uhuru, saying it will be easy for Mudavadi to convince other communities to back his presidency since he will go to the negotiating table where the next government will be crafted with 3.5million votes in his fold
Mr. Savula said it would be a toll order for Ruto and Raila to penetrate in the region since they will have brought all Tangatanga MPs and those of ODM to ANC. Already, Malava MP Malulu Injendi (a Jubilee MP) has decamped to ANC from Jubilee
Savula also said the One Kenya Alliance that brings together Mudavadi, Wetang’ula, Gideon Moi (Kanu) and Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper) is a force to reckon and is crafting to form the next government with likeminded leaders.
“Luhya unity has always been underestimated and yet Luhyas overwhelmingly together. Any politician who wants a national constituency will come to the Mulembe Nation seeking support and later vanishes after ascending to power. This has been the case since independence, “said Prof. Amukoa Anangwe, a political analyst.
According to Prof. Anangwe, Luhyas generosity has seen the likes of Raila get many votes from the region in 2007, 2013 and 2017, adding that come 2022, the political dynamics are likely to shift and the region will overwhelmingly vote for one of their own.
“Luhyas will vote in one basket come 2022 if the current dynamics can hold, then Musalia Mudavadi will be the front runner when it comes to presidency at the expense of Raila who appeal to the Luhyas is quickly waning due to his own political mistakes he has been making since the last polls,” said Prof. Anangwe.
Anangwe also spelt doom for DP Ruto from getting any support from the region on grounds that he (Ruto) has a perception that by dishing out handouts to the electorate, you will get votes, arguing that his approach is dead wrong.
The former Butere lawmaker further rubbished Ruto’s overtures in the region, saying even the foot soldiers he (Ruto) is using to endear himself to the electorate have no strong base in Mulembe nation politics since they won their respective seats on simple majority.
“You may have resources but it’s not all that matters in politics. It depends on the message is packaged and how it resonates with the voter. They just see politics as handouts but what is needed is you come with an elaborate agenda and take it to the grassroots,” said Prof. Anangwe.
Anangwe’s sentiments were shared by Malava MP Malulu Injendi said that he decamped to ANC after discovering that Mudavadi was the ideal candidate to succeed Uhuru and therefore his work will be to galvanize the support of the other 42 MPs from the region to support the ex-vice president irrespective of the current party affiliations.
He said it is Mudavadi who called him and convinced him to decamp to ANC saying he will talk to his ODM and Jubilee MPs from the region to follow suit.
“This is the moment for Mulembe nation to lead the country as it will be sinful and immoral for Central and Rift Valley regions that have enjoyed presidency all through. The stakes are so high for us and we are working towards attracting other communities to support our presidential bid,” said Injendi.
He added: “Uhuru during the burial of Hannah Mudavadi openly told us time has come for us to lead the country and we must seize that opportunity. The statement Uhuru made was not from him but from God and it meant it’s a Luhya to succeed him since he was in our soil,”
ENDS
